Pulse Asia’s April 21 – 25, 2007 Pre-Election Survey Media Release on Filipinos’ Party-List Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings of the latest April 2007 Pre-Election Survey on Filipinos’ Party-List Preferences. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2.3 percentage points error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: +/- 6% for each of Metro Manila, Northern Luzon and Southern Luzon; +/- 8% for each of Western Visayas, Central Visayas and Eastern Visayas; +/- 6% for Mindanao without ARMM and +/- 8% for ARMM. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from April 21 to 25, 2007. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)

As the interviews for this pre-election survey were being conducted, Filipinos were preoccupied with developments having to do with former Senator Gregorio B. Honasan’s indictment in relation to the July 2003 Oakwood mutiny four days after his temporary release on bail, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s visit to China, the continuing investigation into the death of a Peace Corps volunteer in Ifugao, the celebration of Earth Day on 22 April amidst warnings about the sorry state of the national and global environment, the petition filed by Akbayan! and two other groups before the Supreme Court compelling the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) to make public the names of all party-list nominees running in the midterm elections, the Jesus is Lord’s endorsement of four GO senatorial bets, the P10,000 prize offered by Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez to barangay captains in Iloilo who will be able to deliver a 12-0 sweep for TU senatorial candidates in the May 2007 elections which the COMELEC said was tantamount to vote-buying, and the resignation of National Treasurer Omar Cruz.

The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual surveys or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.

Pulse Asia undertook this pre-election survey on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

Overall level of public awareness of the party-list system increases; Bayan Muna continues to lead the party-list race

In the coming midterm elections, Filipino registered voters will also be voting for party-list groups that will be represented in the Lower House. At present, 59% of Filipino registered voters report awareness of the party-list mechanism – higher by 6 percentage points than the 53% figure obtained in the early April survey. Across the country’s geographic areas and socio-economic groupings, levels of public awareness of the party-list system range from 53% in Mindanao to 77% in the best-off Class ABC. This increase in the level of public awareness may be attributed in part to recent media reports as regards the alleged sale of party-list nominations, the reported ties of some party-list groups to the national administration, and the petition filed by several groups before the Supreme Court (SC) to have the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) make public the names of all party-list nominees for the May 2007 elections (See Table1).

Among the 93 groups accredited by the COMELEC to participate in the party-list elections, 11 would have a statistical chance of winning at least one congressional seat if the May 2007 elections were held today. Still the leading party-list group is Bayan Muna with an overall voter preference of 12.3%. This figure translates to three seats in the House of Representatives – the maximum that is allowed under the law. On the other hand, 35.3% of Filipino registered voters – both those who are aware and not aware of the party-list mechanism – are not inclined to vote for any of the party-list groups fielding candidates for the May 2007 elections. This is essentially the same as the figure (35.7%) recorded in Pulse Asia’s early April 2007 pre-election survey. Thus, the increase in the level of public awareness of the party-list mechanism is not matched by an increase in the level of public interest in the party-list elections. In part, this may be because Filipino registered voters are awaiting the resolution of the issues mentioned above that have been raised in connection with the party-list elections (See Table2 page 1) (See Table2 page 2) (See Table2 page 3) (See Table2 page 4)

Aside from Bayan Muna (12.3%), the other party-list groups who enjoy overall voter preferences of at least 2.0% at present are Gabriela Women’s Party (6.9%) and Anak Pawis (6.8%) also with three congressional seats like Bayan Muna, Angat Ating Kabuhayan Pilipinas, Inc. (5.1%), and Akbayan! Citizens’ Action Party (4.7%) with two seats each in the House of Representatives, and the rest – Buhay Hayaang Yumabong (3.6%), An Waray (2.8%), Filipinos for Peace, Justice, and Progress Movement (2.7%), Association of Philippine Electric Cooperatives (2.2%), Citizens’ Battle Against Corruption (2.2%), and Anak Mindanao (2.1%) – have one congressional seat each.

[It must be noted that the survey has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. This would have implications for identifying the probable winners in the election for party-list representatives based on current survey data.]