Pulse Asia’s April 21 – 25, 2007 Pre-Election Survey Media Release on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings of the latest April 2007 Pre-Election Survey on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2.3 percentage points error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: +/- 6% for each of Metro Manila, Northern Luzon and Southern Luzon; +/- 8% for each of Western Visayas, Central Visayas and Eastern Visayas; +/- 6% for Mindanao without ARMM and +/- 8% for ARMM. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from April 21 to 25, 2007. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)

As the interviews for this pre-election survey were being conducted, Filipinos were preoccupied with developments having to do with former Senator Gregorio B. Honasan’s indictment in relation to the July 2003 Oakwood mutiny four days after his temporary release on bail, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s visit to China, the continuing investigation into the death of a Peace Corps volunteer in Ifugao, the celebration of Earth Day on 22 April amidst warnings about the sorry state of the national and global environment, the petition filed by Akbayan! and two other groups before the Supreme Court compelling the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) to make public the names of all party-list nominees running in the midterm elections, the Jesus is Lord’s endorsement of four GO senatorial bets, the P10,000 prize offered by Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez to barangay captains in Iloilo who will be able to deliver a 12-0 sweep for TU senatorial candidates in the May 2007 elections which the COMELEC said was tantamount to vote-buying, and the resignation of National Treasurer Omar Cruz.

The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual surveys or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.

Pulse Asia undertook this pre-election survey on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

Former Senator Loren Legarda still leads the senatorial race; opposition candidates continue to dominate the list of probable winners

With less than three weeks to go before the midterm elections, Filipino registered voters are identifying a mean of 8 and a median of 9 (out of a maximum of 12) of their candidates for the Philippine Senate. And if the May 2007 elections were held today, 14 of the 37 individuals seeking senatorial seats would have a statistical chance of winning. Seven of them belong to the “Genuine Opposition” (GO), five are running under the administration’s “TEAM Unity” (TU), and two are independent candidates. Former Senator Loren Legarda continues to top the list of probable winners with an overall voter preference of 59.6% for a statistical ranking of solo 1st place. (See Senatorial Voting Preferences Table).

Sharing the 2nd to the 4th places are three GO senatorial bets – House Minority Floor Leader Francis Joseph G. Escudero (47.2%), Senate President Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (47.0%), and Senator Panfilo M. Lacson (43.9%). In 5th and 6th places are Senator Francis N. Pangilinan (38.8%) and Pateros-Taguig Representative Alan Peter S. Cayetano (38.2%) who share a statistical ranking of 5th to 10th places. They are followed by former Senator Gregorio B. Honasan (35.7%), Tarlac Representative Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III (35.5%), Senator Ralph G. Recto (35.4%), and Senator Edgardo J. Angara (35.2%) who may land anywhere from 5th to 12th places.

Completing the list of probable winners are Senator Joker P. Arroyo (33.4%) and Bukidnon Representative Juan Miguel F. Zubiri (32.0%) who share a statistical ranking of 7th to 14th places, Atty. Aquilino L. Pimentel III (30.1%) in 11th to 15th places, and former Senator Vicente C. Sotto III (29.2%) in 11th to 17th places. In addition, 8.8% of Filipino registered voters refuse to name their senatorial candidates at this time or are still undecided on the matter or do not express electoral support for any of those running for senator.

[For this particular survey, Pulse Asia made use of the official list of senatorial candidates released by the Commission on Elections (COMELEC). Respondents were asked to write down the names of their preferred senatorial candidates on a “ballot” which was then dropped into a “ballot box” to simulate the act of voting. Additionally, ballots containing only the name “Cayetano” (9.8%) were counted toward senatorial candidate Alan Peter Cayetano in view of a March 27, 2007 COMELEC resolution declaring Joselito “Peter” Cayetano a nuisance candidate.]