Pulse Asia's October 2008 Nationwide Survey on Quality of Life (QOL), Comparative State of the National Economy, and American Financial Crisis

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the October 2008 Ulat ng Bayan national survey on Quality of Life (QOL), Comparative State of the National Economy, and American Financial Crisis.  We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.  

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a  +/- 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from October 14 to 27, 2008.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)

While the field interviews for this survey were being done, several developments dominated the news headlines.  The major developments during this period included the financial crisis in the United States that soon spilled over into other parts of the world including the Philippines, the American presidential elections, the filing of a new impeachment complaint against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the Supreme Court decision on the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD), and the controversial trip to Russia of several police officials that involved a “contingency fund” of P6.9M.  Other issues included the deportation from the US of former Agriculture Undersecretary Jocelyn Bolante who is widely believed to be the brains behind the fertilizer fund scam, the decline in the price of oil at the world market, the impending increase in the electricity charges of the Manila Electric Company (MERALCO), and the food scare in China and other parts of the world over the discovery of melamine, an industrial chemical, in milk and other food products.

    The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual surveys or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.

    Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

A majority of Filipinos (58%) is worse off now than last year (i.e., “losers”) while an even higher percentage (78%) thinks most Filipinos are “losers” now compared to a year ago 

Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, few Filipinos consider themselves to be better off now than last year (i.e., “gainers”) (10% to 18%).  On the other hand, majorities across these sub-groupings – ranging from 52% in the rest of Luzon to 73% in Mindanao – see themselves as “losers”.  As regards those saying there was no change in their personal circumstances over the past year, figures vary from 18% in Mindanao to 34% in the rest of Luzon (See Table 1).

Big to overwhelming majorities (72% to 90%) in all geographic areas and socio-economic classes consider most Filipinos as losers while no more than 8% in these sub-groupings consider them as gainers.  Additionally, the percentages of Filipinos saying there was no improvement or deterioration in the national QOL range from 7% in Mindanao to 25% in the rest of Luzon (See Table 2).

With respect to the next 12 months, pessimism is the predominant public sentiment – both at the personal and national levels (44% and 67%, respectively)

At the personal level, pessimism about the year ahead is most pronounced in Mindanao (61%) but a high level of pessimism (i.e., relative to the national figure) may also be noted in the Visayas (55%).  In contrast, pessimism is least manifest in Metro Manila (28%) where optimism is at its highest (34%).  Those in the Visayas, Mindanao, and the poorest Class E (14% to 17%) are least optimistic about their personal circumstances in the year ahead.  Additionally, the percentages of Filipinos who do not expect any change in their personal situation in the next 12 months are generally consistent with the national figure (28% to 38% versus 33%), except in Mindanao where a lower figure is recorded (24%) (See Table 3).

Pessimism as regards the national QOL is a sentiment expressed by majorities across all geographic areas and socio-economic classes with levels of public pessimism ranging from 55% in Metro Manila to 81% in Mindanao.  Metro Manilans (16%) and those in Class ABC (16%) are most optimistic about the national situation in the next 12 months while optimism is least pronounced in Mindanao (4%).  On the other hand, anywhere from 14% in Mindanao to 28% in Metro Manila do not expect any change in the national QOL between now and next year (See Table 4).   

Indications of easing for some: Fewer Filipinos now consider themselves to be losers than in July 2008 (-17 percentage points), levels of personal pessimism decline (-20 percentage points) between July and October 2008, and the most marked movement in national QOL figures is the 12-percentage point drop in level of pessimism
 
The percentages of Filipinos who are losers drop between July and October 2008 in practically all geographic areas and socio-economic classes (-11 to -28 percentage points), with the exception of Metro Manila and the best-off Class ABC.  More among those in the Visayas, the country’s rural areas, and sub-Class D2, now regard themselves as gainers relative to last quarter (+10 to +13 percentage points).  Meanwhile, at the national level and in the rest of Luzon and the Visayas, the country’s urban and rural areas, and Classes D and E, the sense that one’s personal QOL did not change – positively or negatively – in the past 12 months is more manifest now than in July 2008 (+10 to +18 percentage points) (See Table 5).

In relation to next year, the rise in levels of public optimism (+10 percentage points) and the percentages of Filipinos who are not expecting any movement – positive or negative – in their personal circumstances in the year ahead (+10 percentage points) translate to a drop in levels of public pessimism (-20 percentage points) between July and October 2008.  Pessimism becomes less pronounced across all geographic areas and socio-economic classes (-12 to -25 percentage points) during this period.  Conversely, there are currently more optimists in Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the country’s urban areas, and Classes ABC and D (+10 to +22 percentage points) relative to last quarter.  In addition, the percentage of Filipinos saying their personal situation will remain the same between now and next year goes up in the urban areas of the Philippines, the rest of Luzon, Class E, and sub-Class D2 (+11 to +17 percentage points) (See Table 6). 

There are hardly any movements in retrospective national QOL figures between July and October 2008 – whether one speaks of the Philippine figures or those recorded across geographic areas and socio-economic groupings.  The only changes occur in Class E where the percentages saying most Filipinos are losers decrease (-10 percentage points) as well as in the Visayas where those sharing this sentiment decline (-15 percentage points) and the percentages of those saying there was no change in the national QOL increase (+10 percentage points) (See Table 7).

Levels of public pessimism decline (-10 to -26 percentage points) in almost all geographic areas and socio-economic classes.  In contrast, levels of optimism go up in Metro Manila and Class ABC (+11 to +12 percentage points). In the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, Class ABC, and sub-Class D2, the expectation that there will be no change in the national QOL in the next 12 months is more pronounced at present than in July 2008 (+10 to +15 percentage points) (See Table 8).

A big majority of Filipinos (79%) considers the national economy to have deteriorated in the past three years – a sentiment shared by big majorities (72% to 86%) in all geographic areas and socio-economic classes  

In contrast, only 6% of Filipinos think that the national economic situation improved since 2005 while 15% say there was no change – positive or negative – in the state of the Philippine economy.  Between July and October 2008, there is a decline in the percentages of Filipinos saying the national economic situation is worse now than in 2005 (-7 percentage points) (See Table 9).

Among the majority saying the state of the national economy has worsened in the past three years, 77% strongly felt, 21% somewhat felt, and only 2% did not feel the impact of this deterioration on their own lives.  Considerable to big majorities (64% to 84%) across geographic areas and socio-economic classes report that they were strongly affected by the deterioration in the state of the national economy between 2005 and 2008.  On the other hand, among the few who believe that the national economy has improved since 2005, almost the same percentages say either that they were strongly or somewhat affected by this improvement (42% versus 29%) while the rest (10%) did not feel the impact of this economic growth on their personal lives (See Table 9). 
 
About half of Filipinos (49%) believes the American financial crisis may have a great impact on the Philippine economy and most of them feel the crisis would have disastrous consequences for most Filipinos in general (78%) as well as for their own families (63%)

The financial crisis in the United States (US) is known to 69% of Filipinos while the rest (31%) do not know about this development.  Majorities across geographic areas and socio-economic classes (55% to 90%) are aware of the financial crisis.  Additionally, among those aware, big majorities (65% to 75%) across geographic areas and socio-economic classes believe the American financial crisis may have a great impact on the Philippine economy.  About half (49%) of Filipinos believe that the crisis may have a large effect on the Philippines. In particular, this subgroup of Filipinos is worried that the crisis in the US would be disastrous for most Filipinos (76% to 83%) and would have adverse repercussions for their own families (53% to 69%) (See Table 10).