Pulse Asia's October 2008 Nationwide Survey on Hopelessness and Intention to Migrate

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from the October 2008 Ulat ng Bayan national survey on Hopelessness and Intention to Migrate.  We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information on Filipino perceptions, opinions, sentiments, and attitudes relating to current developments here and abroad.  

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a +/- 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from October 14 to 27, 2008.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)

While the field interviews for this survey were being done, several developments dominated the news headlines.  The major developments during this period included the financial crisis in the United States that soon spilled over into other parts of the world including the Philippines, the American presidential elections, the filing of a new impeachment complaint against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the Supreme Court decision on the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD), and the controversial trip to Russia of several police officials that involved a “contingency fund” of P6.9M.  Other issues included the deportation from the US of former Agriculture Undersecretary Jocelyn Bolante who is widely believed to be the brains behind the fertilizer fund scam, the decline in the price of oil at the world market, the impending increase in the electricity charges of the Manila Electric Company (MERALCO), and the food scare in China and other parts of the world over the discovery of melamine, an industrial chemical, in milk and other food products.

The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual surveys or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.

Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

A considerable majority of Filipinos (68%) disagrees with the view that the Philippines is a hopeless country. 

Even higher levels of disagreement are recorded in all areas of Mindanao (75% to 79%) and urban Visayas (77%) as well as among government and private sector employees (75%) and those who farm/fish for a living (77%).  In contrast, almost the same percentages of Filipinos either agree that the Philippines is hopeless or are ambivalent on the matter (13% versus 18%).  The highest level of agreement is posted in urban Luzon (20%) while ambivalence is most marked in rural Luzon (24%) (See Table 1).

    Quarter on quarter the sense of hopelessness declines in NCR and Balance Luzon (both by 13 percentage points or 13 pp), Mindanao (by 21 pp), and urban and rural areas (by 10 pp and 13 pp, respectively), and among Class D (by 16 pp), males (by 17 pp), those aged 45-54 years (by 14 pp), and those who did not reach college (by 11 to 16 pp) and those working (by 19 pp). There is also a decline in the sense of hopelessness year-on-year. Disagreement with the view that the country is hopeless stood at 54% in October 2007 (See Table 2).

If it were possible for them to migrate to another country, 20% of Filipinos would do so while 54% would not. 

Nearly a quarter (24%) cannot say if they would or would not migrate if given the opportunity.  Those with at least some college education (32% to 35%), Visayans (32% to 40%), and those in Class ABC (34%) are most inclined to move to another country.  Conversely, disinclination to migrate is most manifest in the rest of Luzon (61%) and particularly in its rural areas (66%), the rural areas of the Philippines (61%), those with at best some high school education or vocational training (64% to 66%), farmers/fisherfolks (64%), those aged 55 years old and above (65% to 67%), and residents of rural Mindanao (68%).  The highest levels of public ambivalence on the matter are recorded in Metro Manila (32%) and urban Mindanao (35%) (See Table 3).

Quarter on quarter the desire to migrate declines in Balance Luzon (by 22 pp), and among classes D and E (both by 12 pp), both males and females (by 10 and 9 pp, respectively), those aged 35 to 44 years (by 19 pp), those aged 55 to 64 years (by 20 pp), those with some high school and vocational preparation (by 22 pp) and among those working (by 13 pp). Desire to migrate is also lower now compared to October 2007 when only 43% disagreed to the statement about migrating to another country (See Table 4).