Pulse Asia's October 2009 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos' Presidential, Vice-Presidential and Senatorial Preferences for the May 2010 Elections

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on Filipinos’ Preferences for the May 2010 Elections from the October 2009 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from October 22 to 30, 2009 using face-to-face interviews. Immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey, the following developments dominated the news headlines: (1) the formal declaration of former President Joseph Estrada of his bid for the presidency in 2010 and questions raised regarding the legality of this bid; (2) Senator Loren Legarda’s declaration of her plans for the May 2010 elections and Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Ronaldo V. Puno’s withdrawal from the vice-presidential race;; (3) Senator Francis G. Escudero’s departure from the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC); (4) the continuing search for a running mate by both Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Gilbert C. Teodoro, Jr. and Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr.; (4) the long lines of late registrants catching the last days of registration for the May 2010 elections; (5) the resignation of Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Secretary Hermogenes E. Ebdane Jr.; (6) continuing relief efforts in the aftermath of typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng, as well as the arrival of two new storms; and (7) the freeze on oil prices and other energy products, as well as basic commodities, imposed by the government.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: +/- 6% for Metro Manila, +/-4% for the rest of Luzon and +/- 5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from October 22 to 30, 2009.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)  

Pulse Asia's pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Senator Benigno C. Aquino III leads all surveyed presidential hopefuls/presidentiables by a big margin.  The reason most-often cited in expressing a voting preference for a possible presidential candidate is the latter's clean public record ("malinis") or, alternatively,  not being corrupt "hindi kurakot".

    With a little over half a year before the May 2010 elections, and less than a month before the filing of certificates of candidacy, the electoral scene saw some changes with the entry of Senator Benigno C. Aquino III into the presidential race. In October 2009, 44% of Filipinos express support for the presidential bid of Senator Aquino while in second place is Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (19%). The only other possible presidential candidates to score double-digit voter preferences are Senator Francis G. Escudero (13%) and former President Joseph Estrada (11%). The other individuals included in the presidential probe register voter preferences of at most 4%. Less than one in ten Filipinos (4%) does not have a favored presidential candidate at the moment. (See Table 1).

Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, Senator Aquino enjoys majority voter preferences in the best-off Class ABC (51%) and the Visayas (53%). Meanwhile, big pluralities of those in the rest of Luzon and Mindanao (both at 41%) and Classes D and E (both at 44%), as well as a near majority of Metro Manilans (47%), would elect Senator Aquino to the presidency if the May 2010 elections were held at the time of the survey. (Table 1.  Note:   Voting preferences that are less than 1% are not indicated in the table).

With Senator Aquino joining the presidential race, the other personalities who used to be in the lead experienced a decline in their voter preferences. Between August and October 2009, the biggest drop in electoral support is recorded by Vice-President Noli L. de Castro (-12 percentage points). The voter preferences of Senator Villar and former President Estrada also decline during this period (-6 and -8 percentage points, respectively).   (See Table 2).

Around two in ten Filipinos (21.2%) are voting for a particular presidential candidate because he/she is not corrupt or is malinis – a reason cited by fewer respondents in May and August 2009 (7.1% and 6.3%, respectively). It may be recalled that in May 2009, the leading reason for voting was a candidate’s being helpful to others (34.0%) while in August 2009, the top reasons cited were a candidate’s having many accomplishments (25.3%) and his/her being pro-poor (20.3%). Currently, 14% are motivated to vote for a presidential candidate because of his/her many accomplishments, 12.2% cite a candidate’s being pro-poor, and 12.0% favor one candidate over another because he/she helps others, with 6.6% mentioning being helpful to overseas Filipinos workers (OFWs) in particular. (See Tables 3 and 4).

In contrast, the less often-mentioned reasons for electing a presidential candidate include the good reputation of his/her family (4.2%) and his/her being virtuous or mabait (3.7%), knowledgeable and experienced (3.6%), and religious (3.2%). A host of other reasons are mentioned by 15.0% of Filipinos including, among others, a candidate’s being intelligent (3.0%), approachable (2.5%), and trustworthy (2.2%). (See Table 3)

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Senator Manuel A. Roxas II emerges as the favored vice-presidential bet in October 2009

Almost four in ten Filipinos (37%) would vote for Senator Manuel A. Roxas II as vice-president if the May 2010 elections were held at the time of the survey. Senator Roxas leads the other vice-presidentiables in several geographic areas and socio-economic classes (32% to 49%).  In Balance Luzon and Mindanao, however,  his lead over Senator Loren Legarda (32% versus 25% and 33% versus 28% respectively) is a marginal one, i.e. within the sample's margin of error.  Statistically speaking, the two vice-presidential hopefuls could have nearly the same level of voter preferences in these two areas.  The same observation could also be made regarding their comparative voter preferences among the poorest Class E (33%vs. 25%).

At the national level, Senator Legarda finds herself in second place in the vice-presidential race (23%) while Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay and Vice-President de Castro share third place (13% and 11%, respectively). Six other probable vice-presidential bets score voter preferences of 4% or less while only 4% of Filipinos are not inclined to support any vice-presidential candidate. (See Table 5).

There are no significant movements in the voter preferences of those individuals included in Pulse Asia’s August and October 2009 vice-presidential probes as changes range only from -4 percentage points for Vice-President de Castro to +4 percentage points for Senator Legarda. [No comparative data are available for Senators Aquino and Roxas as their presidential and vice-presidential voter preferences, respectively, are being probed by Pulse Asia for the first time since October 2007.] (See Table 6).

SENATORIAL RACE: 14 out of 66 individuals included in the senatorial probe have a statistical chance of winning, with Senator Jinggoy Estrada leading the list of probable winners

With more media attention currently being devoted to the presidential and vice-presidential contests, the level of public interest in the senatorial race appears to have declined between August and October 2009. Three months ago, 57% of Filipinos already had a complete senatorial line-up for the May 2010 elections but now fewer Filipinos (40%) report having a complete senatorial list. And while Filipinos were naming a mean of ten and a median of 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their favored senatorial candidates back in August 2009, the mean figure is now down to eight while the median figure has declined to nine. (See Tables 7 and 8).

Currently leading the senatorial race is Senator Jinggoy Estrada, whose overall voter preference of 46.7% translates to a statistical ranking of 1st to 2nd places. Senator Estrada is followed closely by Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (42.4%) who is ranked 1st to 3rd. In 2nd to 7th places is former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (38.6%) while 3rd to 7th places are shared by Senator Pia S. Cayetano (37.2%), Senator Revilla (36.6%), Makati City Mayor Binay (36.6%), and Senator Roxas (36.3%). Senator Jamby A.S. Madrigal (31.6%) and Atty. Aquilino L. Pimentel (31.4%) are in 8th to 13th places while three former senators are presently ranked 8th to 14th – former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director-General Ralph G. Recto (30.6%), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (28.5%), and Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) Chairperson Vicente C. Sotto III (28.2%). Completing the list of probable winners are Mr. Willie Revillame (27.4%) who ranks 8th to 15th and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (26.6%) who is in 10th to 15th places. A negligible percentage of Filipinos (5.0%) is not inclined to vote for any of the probable senatorial candidates whose voter preferences are probed in this survey. (See Tables 9a and 9b).

Among the probable winners, no improvements in voter preferences are recorded between August and October 2009. Instead, levels of electoral support for the following decline during this period – Senate President Enrile (-5.5 percentage points), former NEDA Director-General Recto (-7.0 percentage points), Senator Madrigal (-7.3 percentage points), former Senate President Drilon (-7.7 percentage points), Senator Cayetano (-9.4 percentage points), Senator Revilla (-9.8 percentage points), and Senator Roxas (-12.0 percentage points). The 13 probable winners for whom comparative data are available lost an average of 5.9 percentage points in their voter preferences between August and October 2009. Meanwhile, among those outside the winners’ circle, the most marked changes in voter preferences are recorded by former Optical Media Board (OMB) Chairperson Eduardo B. Manzano (-10.9 percentage points), former Senator Juan Flavier (-6.4 percentage points), Bukidnon Representative Teofisto Guingona III (-5.2 percentage points), Senator Richard Gordon (-5.0 percentage points), and Department of Tourism (DOT) Secretary Joseph Ace H. Durano (-4.9 percentage points). (See Table 10).