Pulse Asia's October 2009 Nationwide Survey on Election-Related Probes

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on Election-Related Probes from the October 2009 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from October 22 to 30, 2009 using face-to-face interviews. Immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey, the following developments dominated the news headlines: (1) the formal declaration of former President Joseph Estrada of his bid for the presidency in 2010 and questions raised regarding the legality of this bid; (2) Senator Loren Legarda’s declaration of her plans for the May 2010 elections and Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Ronaldo V. Puno’s withdrawal from the vice-presidential race;; (3) Senator Francis G. Escudero’s departure from the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC); (4) the continuing search for a running mate by both Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Gilbert C. Teodoro, Jr. and Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr.; (4) the long lines of late registrants catching the last days of registration for the May 2010 elections; (5) the resignation of Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Secretary Hermogenes E. Ebdane Jr.; (6) continuing relief efforts in the aftermath of typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng, as well as the arrival of two new storms; and (7) the freeze on oil prices and other energy products, as well as basic commodities, imposed by the government.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level:  +/- 6% for Metro Manila, +/-4% for the rest of Luzon and +/-5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from October 22 to 30, 2009.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)  

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602.

Most Filipinos (61%) have little or almost no knowledge at all about the automated election system (AES) that will be implemented in May 2010

Public awareness as regards the AES is still low with four in ten Filipinos (40%) admitting to knowing little about it and about two in ten (21%) saying they have almost no or no knowledge about the new system to be used in the May 2010 elections. On the other hand, only 13% claim to have a great deal of knowledge about the AES while 26% say they know enough about it. Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, about the same percentages of those in Metro Manila and Class ABC either have enough or little knowledge as regards the AES (35% versus 33% and 36% versus 31%, respectively). In the rest of Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao, and Classes D and E, big pluralities to near majorities (36% to 47%) know little about the AES. (See Table 1)

Sizeable majorities of Filipinos believe that the country’s public school teachers will perform their duty as members of the Board of Election Inspectors (BEI) impartially (64%) and that they are capable of managing the AES in next year’s polls 65%)

The predominant public sentiment among Filipinos is one of trust in the impartiality of the public school teachers in their role as members of the BEI (64%). This is the view articulated by majorities in every geographic area (including sub-areas) and socio-economic class (55% to 80%), with the exception of Region 10 and CARAGA (44%). Western Visayans are most inclined to believe in the impartiality of public school teachers as BEI members (80%). Meanwhile, only 7% of Filipinos express a contrary opinion while 29% are ambivalent on the matter. Public indecision and distrust are most pronounced in Region 10 and CARAGA (38% and 18%, respectively). (See Tables 2 and 3)

About two in three Filipinos (65%) believe that the country’s public school teachers are capable of managing the AES for the May 2010 elections – a sentiment shared by majorities across geographic areas (including sub-areas) and socio-economic classes ranging from 55% in Region 11 to 86% in Western Visayas. Again, the exception here is Region 10 and CARAGA where fewer respondents (45%) are inclined to believe in the capability of public school teachers to manage the new system for next year’s polls. In the meantime, less than one in ten Filipinos (7%) does not think public school teachers are capable of managing the AES while nearly three in ten (29%) express indecision on the matter. Residents of Region 10 and CARAGA are not only most ambivalent on the matter (39%) but are also most inclined not to believe in the capability of the country’s teacher to implement the AES next year (16%). (See Tables 4 and 5)

The prevailing sentiment among Filipinos is that it is highly likely that the May 2010 polls will be held as scheduled (67%); a near majority of Filipinos (49%) thinks there will be much trouble in the country in case next year’s electoral exercise does not push through

Most Filipinos (67%) believe that there is a big possibility that next year’s elections will push through as scheduled while a big plurality (49%) is of the opinion that there will be much trouble in the country should the May 2010 elections be postponed or cancelled. Public indecision on these issues is expressed by 21% to 24% of Filipinos while 11% believe there is a small possibility the next year’s polls will not take place and 26% do not think much trouble will occur in case the elections are not held. Between August and October 2009, there is a decline in the percentage of Filipinos inclined to believe that the postponement or cancellation of the May 2010 elections will result in much trouble (-11 percentage points) and an increase in the percentage of Filipinos who hold a contrary view (+8 percentage points). (See Tables 6, 7, 8a and 8b)

Majorities across geographic areas and socio-economic classes (57% to 80%) believe is it highly likely that the May 2010 elections will be held as scheduled. Residents of Region 10 and CARAGA are most inclined to believe otherwise (25%) while those in Southern Luzon are most ambivalent on the matter (33%). As regards the view that violence will result in case the May 2010 elections do not push through, this is the view expressed by big pluralities to small majorities (43% to 64%) in Metro Manila, the Visayas, the rest of Luzon and particularly Northern/Central Luzon, and Region 11. In Southern Luzon, about the same percentages either think much trouble will result from the cancellation or postponement of the May 2010 elections or express ambivalence on the matter (41% versus 34%) while in Mindanao, especially Regions 9, 10, 12, the ARMM, and CARAGA, nearly the same percentages express either agreement or disagreement with the view that there will be much trouble if next year’s polls are not held (37% to 39% versus 36% to 39%). (See Tables 6, 7, 8a and 8b)

Almost one in two Filipinos (49%) is inclined  to support but not join any protests that might arise in case the May 2010 elections will not push through

In the event that next year’s polls will not push through as scheduled, a near majority of Filipinos (49%) will support but will not join any protest actions resulting from the postponement or cancellation of the elections.  On the other hand, the rest will either not support and not join (41%) or will support and join such protests (10%).(See Table 6 and 7). These figures are essentially the same as those recorded by Pulse Asia in August 2009. (See Tables 8a and 8b)

Near to big majorities (47% to 68%) of Metro Manilans, residents of Northern/Central Luzon, Western and Eastern Visayans, and those in all socio-economic classes say they will support but will not join protest actions should the May 2010 elections not be held as scheduled. Meanwhile, non-participation (i.e., not supporting and not joining) is most pronounced in Central Visayas and Mindanao, particularly in Regions 9, 11, 12, and the ARMM (51% to 58%). Almost the same percentages of those in the rest of Luzon and especially Southern Luzon, the Visayas as a whole, and Region 10 and CARAGA in Mindanao will either support but not join or will not support and will not join such protest actions (46% to 49% versus 41% to 48%). (See Tables 6 and 7)

Among those surveyed, four in ten (40%) think that the automatic counting of votes will result in clean elections with credible results; less than two in ten (16%) hold the opposite view while another four in ten (43%) profess indecision regarding automation's possible effect on the forthcoming elections.  

Big pluralities to small majorities (47% to 54%) of those in Western Visayas and Mindanao, particularly Regions 9, 11, 12, and the ARMM, believe that the outcome of next year’s elections will be credible due to the automation of vote counting. Meanwhile, the prevailing public sentiment in Metro Manila, Central Visayas, Region 10 and CARAGA, and Classes ABC and D is one of indecision (44% to 52%). In the rest of Luzon and Eastern Visayas, nearly the same percentages of respondents are either ambivalent on the matter or believe that automation of vote counting will make election results credible for the citizenry (40% to 49% versus 35% to 46%). On the other hand, a near majority of those in Class E (47%) is optimistic that the automation of vote counting will contribute to the credibility of election results. (See Tables 6, 7, 8a and 8b)

Only a presidential candidate endorsed by the respondent’s church or religious group would surely/probably be elected by most Filipinos (52%)

A small majority of Filipinos (52%) would surely/probably vote for a presidential candidate endorsed by their church. However, 43% of Filipinos are surely/probably not voting for a presidential candidate endorsed by their church. Meanwhile, small to sizeable majorities (58% to 79%) are surely/probably not supporting a presidential bet endorsed by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, former President Joseph Estrada, Mr. Willie Revillame, and People’s Champ Manny Pacquiao. On the other hand, the presidential bid of a candidate endorsed by these personalities would be surely/probably supported by 15% to 37% of Filipinos. In the case of a presidential candidate endorsed by Ms. Kris Aquino, such a candidate would surely/probably get the support of 45% of Filipinos but would surely/probably not be elected by 49%. It may be noted that a presidential bet endorsed by any of these entities would certainly get the support of at most 11% of Filipinos only. Electoral endorsements for president coming from any of these individuals would have no effect on the presidential choices of 2% to 5% of Filipinos while 3% are unable to say what impact such endorsements would have on their choice for president in the May 2010 elections. (See Table 9)