Pulse Asia's January 2010 Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions

In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public  some findings from the January 2010  Pre-Election national survey.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. In the period prior to and during the conduct of the survey, the following were some of the key political developments and issues that dominated the news headlines: (1) the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that hit Haiti on 12 January 2010 and the international effort to help the country; (2) the impending retirement of Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Victor Ibrado and the issue of whether President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo should appoint their replacements or leave the task to the next president; (3) the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking the censure of Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. over the C-5 road extension project and the alleged attempt by the latter’s Senate allies to unseat Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile who chairs the said committee; (4) the Commission on Election (COMELEC) decision clearing the way for the candidacies of President Arroyo and former President Joseph Estrada in the May 2010 elections; (5) the reinstatement of a few presidential and senatorial candidates and the inclusion of several party-list groups in the final list of candidates bringing the total number of candidates to ten for the presidency, eight for the vice-presidency, 62 for the Senate, and 150 for the party-list; (6) questions regarding the certainty of the automation of the May 2010 polls amidst delays in the delivery of counting machines and the training of teachers for the Automated Election System (AES); and (7) the continuing investigation into the Maguindanao massacre that took place in November 2009. Also gaining media attention during this period was the arrest of Jason Ivler on 18 January 2010, the suspect in the shooting of Renato Victor Ebarle, Jr. over a vehicular altercation that took place in November  last year.

Meanwhile, in the economic front, this period saw the price of refined sugar go up to P60/kilo in selected Metro Manila retail outlets despite its suggested retail price of P52/kilo. On the other hand, the prices of diesel and kerosene products declined slightly due to a drop in international oil prices. It was also at this time that the Economic Freedom Index was released, showing the Philippines in 105th place (out of 179 countries) and under the category of “mostly unfree economies”.

For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a ballot that conforms to the latest COMELEC sample that was available prior to the conduct of this survey.  In pioneering the use of a replica of the prospective ballot, Pulse Asia aims to provide substantive feedback on the length of time that it may take to complete the new ballot and also surface some of the concerns associated with filling it out. Measuring  8” x 29”, the ballot lists the names of the candidates for the national posts alphabetically, consistent with the official list released by the COMELEC.  Respondents were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the written instructions therein.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level:  +/- 6% for Metro Manila,  +/-4% for the rest of Luzon and +/-5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)  

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino III and Senator Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. have virtually the same voter preferences as they lead other presidential candidates in Pulse Asia's latest survey.

    With about four months to go before the May 10, 2010 elections, presidential candidates Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino (Liberal Party) and Senator Manuel “Manny” B. Villar (Nacionalista Party) are tied for the presidency, with Senator Aquino registering 37% of voter preferences and Senator Villar 35%. The only other presidential candidate with a double-digit preference is former President Joseph Estrada (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) at 12%. The other candidates register voter preferences of at most 5%. Less than one in ten Filipinos (6%) does not have a preferred presidential candidate at this time. (See Table 1, Distribution of presidential preferences by Region.)

    Across areas, Senator Aquino takes the lead in the National Capital Region, with 38% support against Senator Villar’s  24%.  The two front-runners register virtually the same preference in Balance Luzon (Aquino, 37%; Villar, 36%); Visayas (Aquino, 41%; Villar, 38%); and, Mindanao (Villar, 36%;  Aquino, 33%).   (See Table 1, Distribution of presidential preferences by Region.)

Across socio-demographic groups and taking the error margins for the subgroups into account, Senator Aquino leads among Class D (40%) and among the elderly aged 65 years and over (42%). On the other hand, Senator Villar enjoys the lead in the 25-34 age group (42%). Voter preferences for the two leading candidates are essentially the same across the other socioeconomic classes and age groups.  (See Table 2, Distribution of presidential vote preference by socio-economic groups.)

Compared to the December 2009 survey, support for Senator Villar  improves by 12 percentage points, while preference for Senator Aquino and former President Estrada decline by 8 and 7 percentage points, respectively. Voter preferences for the other presidential candidates, on the other hand, do not register marked changes between the two survey periods. (See Table 3—Comparative Presidential Preference, October 2009-January 2010.)

Voters are as likely to say, based on a predetermined set of reasons to choose from, that they opted for a candidate because he/she is not corrupt or has a clean record (24%) as, he/she cares for the poor (24%). Other reasons cited for preferring a candidate pertain to the ability to do something (16%), helping others (11%), being a good person (9%) and experience in governance (6%)  (See Table 4—Reasons for voting for presidential preference.)

Senator Roxas leads the vice-presidential race

Nearly half of the voters (47%) would vote for Senator Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas (Liberal Party) if the May 2010 elections were held at the time of the survey, giving him a sizeable lead over Senator Loren Legarda (Nacionalista Party, at 28%) in second place and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (PDP Laban, at 13%) in third place. The other vice-presidential candidates garner at most 2% voter preference. Meanwhile, about one in ten voters (7%) did not have a favored vice-presidential candidate at the time of the survey. (See Table 5—Vice Presidential Voter Preference.)

Across geographical areas, Senator Roxas leads the race in Luzon, including NCR, and the Visayas. However, voter preferences for the two leading contenders, Senators Roxas and Legarda, are essentially tied across the Mindanao areas surveyed.  As for the socio-demographic groupings, Senator Roxas enjoys sizeable leads among the upper socio-economic classes ABC (54%) and D (49%) and across the various age groups. Preferences for Senators Roxas and Legarda are essentially tied among Class E voters, however. (See Table 6—Vice Presidential Voter Preference.)

Among the vice-presidential candidates, only Senator Roxas and Senator Legarda register significant movements in voter preference between Pulse’s December 2009 and January 2010 surveys – an increase of 8 percentage points in the case of Senator Roxas and a decline 9 percentage points in the case of Senator Legarda. (See Table 7—Comparative Vice Presidential Preference)