Pulse Asia's January 2010 Pre-election Survey for Senatorial elections

As part of our academic responsibility, we are disseminating part of the findings of the latest pre-election survey conducted by Pulse Asia.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. In the period prior to and during the conduct of the survey, the following were some of the key political developments and issues that dominated the news headlines: (1) the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that hit Haiti on 12 January 2010 and the international effort to help the country; (2) the impending retirement of Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Victor Ibrado and the issue of whether President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo should appoint their replacements or leave the task to the next president; (3) the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking the censure of Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. over the C-5 road extension project and the alleged attempt by the latter’s Senate allies to unseat Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile who chairs the said committee; (4) the Commission on Election (COMELEC) decision clearing the way for the candidacies of President Arroyo and former President Joseph Estrada in the May 2010 elections; (5) the reinstatement of a few presidential and senatorial candidates and the inclusion of several party-list groups in the final list of candidates bringing the total number of candidates to ten for the presidency, eight for the vice-presidency, 62 for the Senate, and 150 for the party-list; (6) questions regarding the certainty of the automation of the May 2010 polls amidst delays in the delivery of counting machines and the training of teachers for the Automated Election System (AES); and (7) the continuing investigation into the Maguindanao massacre that took place in November 2009. Meanwhile, in the economic front, this period saw the price of refined sugar go up to P60/kilo in selected Metro Manila retail outlets despite its suggested retail price of P52/kilo. On the other hand, the prices of diesel and kerosene products declined slightly due to a drop in international oil prices. It was also at this time that the Economic Freedom Index was released, showing the Philippines in 105th place (out of 179 countries) and under the category of “mostly unfree economies”. Also gaining media attention during this period was the arrest of Jason Ivler on 18 January 2010, the suspect in the shooting of Renato Victor Ebarle, Jr. over a vehicular altercation that took place late last year.

For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a ballot that conforms to the COMELEC sample prior to the conduct of the January 2010 pre-elections survey.  Measuring  8” x  29”,  the names of the candidates for the national posts were listed alphabetically as ordered in the official list released by the COMELEC prior to this survey's field work.  Respondents were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the instructions written.  

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level:  +/- 6% for Metro Manila, +/- 4% for the rest of Luzon and +/- 5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)  

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys  on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Senators Ramon B. Revilla, Jr. and Jinggoy E. Estrada lead 12 senatorial candidates who have a statistical chance of winning if the elections were held in the latter part of January 2010. 

Currently leading the senatorial race is Senator Revilla whose overall voter preference of 51.9% translates to a statistical ranking of 1st to 2nd places, putting him in a virtual tie with Senator Estrada (50.4%), who is ranked 1st to 3rd. Meanwhile, Senator Pilar Juliana S. Cayetano (46.8%) is ranked 2nd to 4th, slightly ahead of former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (43.2%) who ranks 3rd to 6th.  Tied from 4th to 6th places are Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (41.2%) and incumbent Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (39.7%). 

Completing the list of probable winners are former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director General Ralph G. Recto (34.4%), former Senators Sergio R. Osmeña III (31.6%) and Vicente C. Sotto III (30.5%), Senator Manuel M. Lapid (29.7%), Ilocos Norte Representative Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. (26.3%), and Mr. Jose P. de Venecia III (24%). 

Within striking distance of a senatorial seat are Muntinlupa Representative Rozzano Rufino B. Biazon (19.8%), Bukidnon Representative Teofisto D. Guingona III (19.7%), and Atty. Alexander L. Lacson (19.1%) – all of whom are ranked 13th to 15th. Atty. Lacson, contrary to previous trends in pre-election voting preferences, is practically making it despite a very low awareness level (33%). In the meantime, about one in ten Filipinos (10.9%) does not express support for any of the senatorial candidates for the May 2010 elections – much higher than the December 2009 figure (3.4%), possibly due to the use of a sample ballot listing 62 names for the senatorial race. (See Table 1a and 1b —Senatorial Preferences)
 
Only two senatorial candidates enjoy improvements in their voter preference during the period December 2009 and January 2010 - Senator Lapid (+6.6 percentage points) and AKBAYAN Party List Representative Anna Theresia H. Hontiveros-Baraquel (+6.2 percentage points). The latter, who is currently ranked 17th to 25th with an overall voter preference of 11.0%, appears to have benefited much from being included in this survey with the addition of “Hontiveros” to her proffered name, an electoral privilege she had to gain from the COMELEC. (See Table 2a and 2b —Comparative Senatorial Preference).

    In contrast, support levels for several senatorial candidates decline during this period, with the biggest drop being recorded by Senator Defensor-Santiago (-10.2 percentage points), possibly due to the use of a sample ballot. The others who experience a decline in voter preference between December 2009 and January 2010 are former Senate President Drilon (-5.2 percentage points), former Senator Francisco S. Tatad (-6.5 percentage points), Atty. Gwendolyn D. Pimentel (-6.5 percentage points), former Senator Osmeña (-8.6 percentage points), former NEDA Director General Recto (-8.7 percentage points), Bukidnon Representative Guingona (-8.8 percentage points), and former Senator Sotto (-9.7 percentage points).

Several changes in statistical ranking are also recorded between December 2009 and January 2010. Among the probable winners, Senator Lapid registers the biggest improvement as he now ranks 8th to 11th, up from 12th to 14th in January 2010. The others whose statistical ranking improve during this period are Senator Revilla (from 1st-4th to 1st-2nd), Senator Cayetano (from 5th-9th to 2nd-4th), Senate President Enrile (from 5th-9th to 4th-6th), and Mr. de Venecia (from 12th-14th to 11th-12th). On the other hand, the most pronounced decline in statistical ranking is recorded by Senator Defensor-Santiago – from 1st to 4th in December 2009 to 4th to 6th at present. Additionally, the statistical rankings of the following also decline during this period – former Senate President Drilon (from 2nd-4th to 3rd-6th), former NEDA Director-General Recto (from 5th-9th to 7th-9th), and former Senators Osmeña and Sotto (from 5th-9th to 7th-10th). (See Table 2a and 2b —Comparative Senatorial Preference).