Pulse Asia's January 2010 Pre-election Survey for Party-List Group Preference As part of our academic responsibility, we are disseminating part of the findings of the latest pre-election survey conducted by Pulse Asia during the period 22 to 26 January 2010.
Aside from probing into Filipinos’ preferences for president, vice-president, and senators, Pulse Asia’s January 2010 pre-election survey also looked into Filipinos’ choices for party list representatives in the coming national elections. In the period prior to and during the conduct of the survey, the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) not only reinstated a few presidential and senatorial candidates but also included several party list groups in the final list of candidates bringing the total number of candidates to ten for the presidency, eight for the vice-presidency, 62 for the Senate, and 150 for the party-list. (However, on January 30, 2010, the COMELEC approved the inclusion of 37 more groups in the election for party list representatives. Thus, as of this writing, the total number of groups seeking party list representation is 187.)
For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a ballot that conforms to the COMELEC sample prior to the conduct of the January 2010 pre-elections survey. Measuring 8” x 29”, the names of the candidates for the national posts were listed alphabetically as ordered in the official list released by the COMELEC prior to this survey's field work. Respondents were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the instructions written.
Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: +/- 6% for Metro Manila, +/- 4% for the rest of Luzon and +/- 5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)
Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.
For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.
Nearly seven out of ten Filipinos are unaware of the party list system.
Only three (31%) out of 10 Filipinos are aware of the party-list system. It is only in the National Capital Region where a majority (51%) of the voters is aware of the party-list system. (See Table 1, Awareness of the party-list system). This low level of awareness is registered just about four months before the electorate opts for a party-list group for the fifth instance since 1998, when this mode of proportional representation was introduced in our elections.
The current level of awareness of the party-list system is just about half of the awareness level posted in the last survey conducted on the same concern, last April 2007 where nearly six out of 10 Filipinos knew about the system. Moreover, the current dismal level of awareness is the lowest that had been recorded across the surveys conducted by Pulse Asia from early 2004. (See Table 2, Comparative Awareness of the Party-List System, 2004-2007). Nine party-list groups garner support above the 2% threshold.
Of the 150(1) COMELEC accredited party-list groups that we listed on the ballot, nine party-list groups managed to get more than 2% support from the voters, enough to gain for them a single seat in the House of Representatives (See Tables 3a and 3b, Electoral Preference of Party-list groups).
Based on the formula of the Supreme Court, in its decision of April 21, 2009(2), 43 party list groups will gain representation if the elections were held at the time of the survey. Five of these party-list groups, namely: Bayan Muna; 1-Aaangat Pilipino; Anak Pawis; Gabriela Women’s Party; and, Akbayan Citizens Action Party, will garner the ceiling of three seats in the Lower House. (See Tables 4a, 4b, 4c, 4d and 4e, 2010 Elections: Party-list group Preference).
______________________________________ (1)Prior to the conduct of the survey, the COMELEC had only accredited 150 party-list groups. This number has increased to 187 based on the COMELEC resolution of January 30, 2010. (2)The decision is based on the case filed by BANAT versus the COMELEC, with various other party-list groups are intervenors. Go to http://sc.judiciary.gov.ph/jurisprudence/2009/april2009/179271.htm
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