Pulse Asia's February 2010 Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions

In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public  some findings from its February 2010  Pre-Election national survey.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Several developments dominated the news headlines in February 2010. Among these are the: (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. before his colleagues wherein he reiterated his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension project controversy and the failure of the senators to vote on the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking to censure Senator Villar; (2) Senator Panfilo M. Lacson’s departure from the country days prior to the issuance of a warrant of arrest for him arising from his alleged involvement in the Dacer-Corbito double-murder case; (3) various problems related to the May 2010 elections such as the delay in the printing of ballots and delivery of PCOS machines, the possibility of cellphone jammers disrupting the transmission of election results, and the lack of telecommunications facilities in certain provinces; (4) official start of the campaign period for national positions; (5) COMELEC’s decision to unseat Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio; (6) Supreme Court’s dismissal of a petition to nullify the poll automation deal between the COMELEC and Smartmatic-TIM; (7) plans of Lakas-Kampi CMD to field President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as its bet for House Speaker in the 15th Congress; (8) resignation of appointed government officials running in the May 2010 polls; (9) continuing selection process for the next Supreme Court Chief Justice; (10) arrest of 43 health workers who were tagged by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) as members of the New People’s Army (NPA); (11) onset of the El Niño phenomenon which has already caused crop damage amounting to P 3.7 billion; (12) increase in power rates and fluctuations in oil prices; and (13) occurrence of rotating brownouts in different parts of the country and the proposal to grant President Arroyo emergency powers to deal with the energy crisis.

For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a sample ballot, measuring  8.5” x 26”, that is a facsimile of the COMELEC official ballot. Respondents were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the instructions written therein.  

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level:  +/- 6% for Metro Manila,  +/-4% for the rest of Luzon and +/-5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)  

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino III leads the presidential contenders in February 2010

With less than three months before the May 10, 2010 elections, Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino III (LP) again takes the lead in the presidential race, garnering 36% of voter preferences. In second place is Senator Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. (NP) with 29% voter support. One other candidate, former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada (PMP), obtains double-digit support (18%), while the other candidates register voter preferences of 7% or less. Meanwhile, 6% of Filipino voters have yet to decide on their presidential preference or have no preferred candidate if the May 2010 elections were held during the survey period. (See Table 1, Distribution of Presidential Preferences by Area and Socioeconomic Class ).

Senator Aquino enjoys a significant lead in the National Capital Region (40%) and among the upper socioeconomic classes ABC (43%) and D (36%), but shares the top spot  with Senator Villar in Balance Luzon (33% Aquino; 31% Villar) and  Visayas (39% Aquino, 38% Villar) and among the poorest class E (36% Aquino; 33% Villar). Meanwhile, given the survey’s error margin, nearly as many voters in Mindanao choose Senator Aquino (38%) as choose former President Estrada (31%) as their presidential bet.  (See Table 1, Distribution of Presidential Preferences by Area and Socioeconomic Class)

Compared to the January 2010 survey, voter support for Senator Aquino is virtually unchanged. On the other hand, voter preference for former President Estrada improves (by 6 percentage points) while that for Senator Villar declines (by 6 percentage points). Meanwhile, Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard bearer Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro, Jr. obtains a marginal increase in voter support (by 2 percentage points, from 5% to 7%). (See Table 2—Comparative Presidential Preference, January 2010 - February 2010)

As in the previous survey, about the same number of voters with a presidential preference says that they opted for their candidate because he/she is not corrupt (26%) as cites his/her caring for the poor (22%). Other reasons cited for preferring a candidate are that he/she can do/ is doing /will do something (14%); helps/is helping others (11%); is a good person (10%) and is used to governing/has experience (7%).  (See Table 3—Reasons for voting for presidential preference)

Senator Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas II continues to lead the vice-presidential race

With 43% of voter preferences, Senator Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas II (LP) continues to enjoy a sizeable lead over the other vice-presidential candidates. Senator Loren Legarda (NPC) places second with 27%, followed by Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (PDP-Laban) with 15%. Meanwhile, the other contenders obtain voter support of 4% or less. Seven percent (7%) of voters have no vice-presidential preference. (See Table 4 —Vice Presidential Voter Preference)

Senator Roxas has the advantage over his opponents across areas and socioeconomic classes except in Balance Luzon and among the poorest socioeconomic class E, where and among whom voter support for him is statistically tied with that for Senator Legarda. Voter preference for him is marginally higher in Balance Luzon (36% vs 31%), while she has the edge, although marginal, among the poorest class E (39% vs 35%).

Preferences for the vice-presidential candidates are virtually unchanged since January 2010, there being but marginal increases and marginal declines even among the top four contenders. Mayor Binay and former MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando both post marginal increases of 2 percentage points, while Senator Roxas and Senator Legarda register marginal declines of 4 percentage points and 1 percentage point, respectively. (See Table 5—Comparative Vice Presidential Preference)